Potential regional risks from dismantling armed groups
LIBYA – A study published by the South Africa-based Institute for Security Studies (ISS), titled “Libya’s arsenals are a blind spot in the Tripoli agreement”, has warned that disbanding armed groups is an essential step towards unifying Libya, but that, without arrangements to control their stockpiles, it could open the door to arms smuggling into Niger, Chad and the Sahel states.
The 30 August agreement and prospects for elections within two years
The study — whose key findings were followed and summarised by Al-Marsad — said the 30 August agreement between the rival parties in eastern and western Libya could pave the way for presidential and legislative elections within two years and restore stability and the country’s unity, but leaves questions over the prospects for implementation and the potential security implications of dismantling armed groups.
A 1,400km border with Niger and Chad
The report pointed to the border Libya shares with Niger and Chad, which stretches for nearly 1,400km, arguing that Libya’s reunification could temporarily increase instability in the Sahel if the spread of weapons is not addressed.
The past 15 years and armed groups’ stockpiles
It noted that, according to the study, southern Libya has for around 15 years served as a rear base where rebel and armed groups and terrorist organisations obtained weapons and ammunition, and that any process to reunify military formations requires disbanding armed groups and reintegrating their fighters.
Surplus weapons accumulated between 2014 and 2020
The study added that the surplus weapons accumulated between 2014 and 2020 — which it said foreign powers had helped to increase — could pass to regional smuggling networks if those formations were dismantled without strict controls to collect and secure their stockpiles.
Warning of black markets in the Sahel
It quoted a community leader in the city of Agadez in Niger, who asked not to be named, as saying that some factions linked to smuggling networks could encourage the resale of weapons on cross-border black markets, particularly as the Sahel region is home to intermediaries from Niger and Chad who facilitate this trade.
Lessons from the arms flows of 2011 and 2012
The study said the flow of weapons from Libya during 2011 had, in its assessment, helped strengthen the capabilities of Boko Haram and the spread of terrorism in 2012, following the fall of the late Colonel Muammar Gaddafi’s regime, the collapse of state institutions and the abandonment of arms depots to looting.
Risks to the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel
It argued that the negotiated dismantling of armed groups today, although different from the circumstances of 2011, could release their stockpiles towards the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel states bordering the Atlantic Ocean, potentially deepening insecurity.
Heavy weapons, drones and a possible shift in the balance of power
The study warned that quantities of mortar rounds, rocket launchers and drones could pass to non-state armed groups, which could upset the balance of power and have serious consequences for regular armies and civilians.
Smuggling networks and desert routes
It said networks smuggling fuel, drugs, gold and irregular migrants link Libya with Niger and Chad, and that the intermediaries and transporters working in them know the desert routes well enough, the study warned, to move large quantities of weapons to various buyers, including terrorist groups.
Call to link any settlement to weapons collection
The study called on the Libyan parties to attach to any political agreement a clear mechanism to collect, inventory and control weapons, and urged Libya’s southern neighbours, the United Nations and the African Union — which it said had helped sponsor the 30 August agreement — to act without waiting for the political settlement to be completed.
UN and African role in disarmament within six months
It proposed expanding the mandate of the UN mission to include a dedicated disarmament component that would work with the Libyan parties to collect, inventory, mark and register weapons within six months, making this a prerequisite for integrating fighters into a unified army, with the process to begin before the end of 2027.
